Syria’s Deepening Hell

The Syrian crisis is only getting worse, and the West’s retrenchment isn’t helping.

Yesterday, the United States decided to stop providing non-lethal aid to the rebel groups it had been supporting. The reason: fighters from the Islamic Front, a coalition of jihadist groups, took over a base belonging to the western-backed Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Salim Idris, the commander of the FSA, is believed to have fled the country. Rebel groups now fight each other – over weapons, territory, influence, and ideology – nearly as often as they fight the regime.

The Western backed FSA is crumbling – it is losing ground to the Syrian regime, it is losing its fighters to more radically Islamic fighting groups, and is now running out of equipment. This will only weaken Obama’s hand as he attempts to negotiate a settlement in Syria, right? After all, the US can’t be seen backing a bunch of terrorists at a peace negotiation, and is dead set against backing Assad.

US Deputy National Security Advisor Antony Blinken however recently argued that the growing role of extremist groups may actually be a good thing for bringing the conflict to a close. Speaking last week at Transformational Trends, a conference at Georgetown’s Four Seasons Hotel, Blinken argued that rebel radicalization would serve as an impetus for global power interests to converge around peace talks. Syria’s largest foreign backers, Russia and China, are no fans of religious radicals. The Russians, whose capital Moscow has been attacked repeatedly over the last decade, would have a profound interest in making sure Syria does not become an extremist stronghold. The Chinese, whose Islamic western provinces are a constant source of heartache, are similarly inclined. As terrorist groups grow in power and influence in Syria, Blinken’s reasoning goes, Moscow and Beijing will become sufficiently concerned that the situation has gotten so out of control as to de-escalate and force Assad to negotiate.

This argument is interesting, but completely ridiculous. It ignores the fact that the terrorists’ strongest financial backers are not the Russians and the Chinese but the Gulf monarchies. The Sheiks don’t mind that the Syrian conflict serves as little more than a breeding ground for Sunni extremists; in fact, that’s pretty excellent because these poor kids, now used to fighting for Sunni Islam, will ready and willing to die in a confrontation with Shia Iran. It also ignores the fact that although Russia could bring Bashar al Assad to the negotiating table in Geneva, no one will bring the Jihadists, and they certainly aren’t inclined to negotiate. The current military stalemate is a result of both sides receiving equal backing and both sides believing they can win. Rising extremism amongst rebel ranks will not persuade the Russians and the Chinese to stop backing the regime because to do so would only help the rebels grow. Indeed they might pledge even more support in the hope that al Assad can finally deal a death blow to the opposition. Blinken’s thesis would make for a fine academic paper at graduate school, but it is wholly unsuited to policy planning in the real world.

Adding to the mess is the estimated 30 journalists that are currently being detained by rebel groups, with seven abductions in the last two months. Several international news organizations, such as the New York Times, AP and the BBC, wrote an open letter warning that “As long as kidnappings are permitted to continue unabated, journalists will not be willing to undertake assignments inside Syria, and they will no longer be able to serve as witnesses to the events taking place within Syria’s borders.” This is just terrible.

And there is the disaster-in-the-making of how the international community will transport the chemical weapons it seeks to destroy from Syria’s heartland to port Latakia on the Mediterranean. Were the weapons to be moved today, they would be traversing an active warzone in little more than minivans. Rebel groups could all too easily ambush them and steal the WMDs. The Syrian government has asked the international community for armoured transport vehicles but the West has been hesitant. The US, still bound by a policy of supporting the opposition, fears that they could be used against rebel groups. This is unacceptable; by refusing to supply the transports, the West is risking the safety of the weapons; this should be their number one priority. The big move is only a few weeks away. They’re not asking for attack helicopters or tanks; give the regime the vehicles is needs.

Meanwhile, thousands of refugees continue to stream into overstretched camps in neighbouring Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon. Some of these, overpopulated and undersupplied, are breeding grounds for radical Islam and resentment of the West. Radicalization is an easy when one spends their days navigating the trenches of squalor and misery, too young to leave and too old to be under constant parental supervision. Religion gives people a purpose, a plan, a way out – radicalization makes these benefits even more salient. Unless we do something, these are the young people who will be extending the life of the jihadist movement into the next generation, just as orphans of the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan populate the Taliban today.

The aid the West stopped providing the rebels this week should be transferred to these refugees. It will not only help alleviate a humanitarian crisis this winter but through schooling and other activities also protect young people from the temptation of radical Islam. There are no easy solutions to the crisis in Syria, and I have not been able to offer solutions to many of the problems discussed above, but providing more assistance to refugees is one thing we can and should do.